The new EPA guidelines are here: what do they mean?

Reducing vehicle emissions is vital in helping mitigate climate change. However, it's a progressively more challenging affair. Even if engines become more efficient, they still need oil derivatives to operate, such as diesel, gasoline, and LPG.

That's why EVs were so tempting at first. From the outside looking in, EVs didn't need gas to operate, so they would have zero emissions.

During 2022 and 2023, we saw a spike in EV sales as people lauded EVs as the future of transportation. Plus, with exciting models coming along, there was a sense of novelty surrounding them.

Of course, my comment on EVs having no emissions oversimplifies the process. EVs still need electricity. Generating it can be challenging, especially in regions where electricity was already scarce before the migration to EVs.

Ironically, that's what many people have noticed as of late. Not only that, but EVs have underdelivered on performance. Just ask Tyler Hoover.

This impasse with EVs comes as the EPA releases its new emission guidelines, and as with any regulatory change, the reception is divided.

On one hand, the 2024 guidelines are more lenient than those presented in 2023. This is a result of pressure from the automotive sector, which forced the EPA to go back to the drawing board.

On the other hand, these new regulations still promise a lot of positive impact. They could reduce 7 billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions and save around $100 billion.

So, what are these new guidelines, and how do they impact us? Here are some of the most interesting ones. 

The first aspect to note is that the new guidelines take longer. The 2023 guidelines demanded that, by 2032, around 66% of new vehicles had zero emissions. The 2024 guidelines instead demand around 56%.

This change responds to pressure as manufacturers claimed they could not meet previous demands.

Another drastic change is how the EPA views miles per gallon and their electric equivalent. This has always been an issue since charging an EV in California during the summer isn't the same as in New York during the winter.

So, the EPA now gives manufacturers less credit for their EV efficiency, and the change is considerable. A Ford F-150 Lightning EV truck used to get 238 equivalent mpg, but now, it gets 83 equivalent mpg.

When a vehicle is rated for fewer mpg, the manufacturer must sell more to compensate for the lost mpg. That's how the entire EPA narrative ties up, and that's where it could fail.

As you can see, emissions play a vital role in EPA guidelines. The problem is that, reducing them isn’t easy. The following chart shows what the EPA expects and how much Greenhouse Gas emissions a 2016 Toyota Rav4 produces (a non-hybrid version).

For these new regulations to succeed, the EPA requires that people buy more EVs or zero-emission vehicles. This is at a time when EVs are losing their grip on the public.

So, how does this affect the vehicle consumer? In the short term, the immediate impact will be vehicle availability. New trucks, SUVs, and cars will likely be hybrids or EVs.

Manufacturers must find ways to reduce the price and improve their performance. How? I honestly don't know, other than that ICE vehicles will also be more expensive in the coming years.

As for work trucks, I doubt EVs match the performance, and this is an area that I'm looking forward to analyzing.

Cleaner energy has always been a challenge, and a necessary one, at that. For the moment, I don't see replacements happening. This creates even more pressure on the average consumer switching over to EVs.

Hybrid SUVs are a great option, and we’ve compiled a list of the best used hybrid SUVs you can buy. You can read it here!